Put everything in the cash, this has not been seen in the last 100 years.
Investors should not be fooled by recent stock market rally and should immediately turn their investments into cash and ultra-secure bonds, a leading global banker warned.
The global economy is expected to enter its biggest recession in the last 100 years, with no firm predictions that it will recover, with governments responding with an unprecedented wave of money printing and stimulus spending.
This is the end of Rome. This is the time when the Romans began to cut the amount of silver that was in the coins. -says Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer in Saxo Bank .
Is debt ceiling going to fall on our heads?
In his latest Macro presentation (published today) Mr. Jakobsen said that he expects ceiling to fall on our heads, not literally though, but this is what he expects:
1. He sees big jump in lay-offs ahead of May 1st
2. Central banks & governments are now same – They are planned economy
3. Taxes will explode on capital Income, Technology companies, global companies, high income, but down on salary earners
Four things to monitor in the days to come
1. Unemployment is truly mispriced (The actual job is only one part of risk…).
But you know how Wall Street investors like to say?- “Unemployment is priced in already .” 26 million of newly unemployed in USA in 5 weeks and no one sees a problem?
2. Sovereign Debt restructuring will happen – Repeat of 1934?
Big name portfolio managers and banksters (gangsters?) are calling for a debt restructuring. But why are they all-in when it comes to debt relief now when they are usually not? Maybe because they see that their world will fall apart if miserable bastards like you and I are head over heels in debt. Everyone indebted is fine, but too much debt is not good.
Agree with much of this excellent thread but especially this point.— Rupert Harrison (@rbrharrison) April 5, 2020
We are going to have to think creatively about debt forgiveness / debt for equity swaps / new equity injections - with the balance determined by how much is born by taxpayers / banks / business owners https://t.co/3TpY1gNGhP
3. Negative Oil Prices is based on negative interest rates & government over-reach.
When it comes to oil we are witnessing the history, as Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said he’s considering creating a government lending program for U.S. oil companies! Why in the world would oil need a bailout? Is there someone else who is not going onto bailout list? If companies fail, they fail, someone else will take their place. It is cold capitalism.
4. EU is now a ‘Mercantile Bartering Project’ not a ‘Political Project’
The biggest problem for EU, according to Mr. Jakobsen is the EU itself. ” Amazing (how) EU keeps thinking market (is) looking for “rhetoric” when it wants real action. EU is a ‘Mercantile bartering Club” not a political project”- he said on Friday. ECB’s Christine Lagarde warned leaders earlier against “doing too little, too late” adding that Eurozone’s GDP may fall up to 15% on COVID-19. May fall? I am sure it will fall everywhere except Germany and Sweden. No wonder Sweden wanted to stay outside Eurozone, they seem to be the smartest ones.
Steen Jakobsen, SAXO Bank CIO ends his analysis with :”Many countries will have majority of GDP & jobs from government” and “1912 Flu brought Communism”.